Friday, September 30, 2005

Morgan Stanley: China Internet - Industry Overview

From Morgan Stanley Equity Research: China Internet - Industry Overview
By Richard Ji (Internet / Media - China) and Mary Meeker (Internet - US / Global)

China Internet - Creating Consumer Value in Digital China

"• We are initiating coverage of the China Internet industry with an attractive view. We believe Chinese Internet companies that focus on creating consumer value have the highest potential to create shareholder value. China is No. 1 in the world in mobile subscribers and No. 1 in Internet users under the age of 30 - this evolving presence on the world stage should not be underestimated.

• We believe the ‘click plus brick’ model may dominate ecommerce in China; content may prove to be king; foreign companies lagging in localization may lag in market penetration; and local companies may need to become savvy acquirers to outgrow rivals.

Online gaming is our favorite segment pick. Local players with selfdevelopment and distribution capacity may emerge as long-term winners.

• We believe competition is breaking out in online brand advertising, which faces inventory oversupply and a secular shift toward performance-centric models. Paid search, on the other hand, is poised for robust expansion.

We view mobile value-added services as an overlooked opportunity. Despite regulatory concerns, entry barriers are rising and a segment recovery is in sight.

• We see rising opportunities in online commerce including travel, instant messaging-related services and auctions. Emerging payment mechanisms will be key to more substantive growth.

• Our top stock picks include Ctrip, NetEase, and Tencent. See our related reports for these companies, plus Sina, Sohu, TOM Online and 51job."

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