Wednesday, March 30, 2005

Globalization and the rise of Asia (part 3) - China's Growth is Only the Beginning

From MarketWatch: Globalization and the rise of Asia (part 3) - China's growth is only the beginning

"How soon will Asia -- meaning China and India -- begin to represent a major challenge to American economic and financial hegemony?
The National Intelligence Council, the research facility operating under the auspices of the Central Intelligence Agency, recently attempted to provide an answer to this question. It predicts the emergence of these two countries as full-fledged global economic powers in the year 2020. It suggests that by the year 2042 China's GDP will exceed that of the United States."

"The presence of this new 800 pound gorilla is bound to affect the world in ways that are not all for the good. For one thing, it has to be fed. More precisely, it has to be fueled. And the fuel it needs is mostly taking the form of oil and its derivatives. To put this into a historical context, between 1984 and 2002 American consumption of crude oil increased 16 percent. During the same period, China's consumption increased 192 percent.
Today, even with a maturing economy, crude oil consumption in China continues to increase by 25 percent a year. The result is that China has already overtaken Japan as the second largest consumer of petroleum in the world, after the United States."

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